Brazil Agribusiness Outlook 2024

Brazilian agribusiness had a remarkable year in 2023, achieving new production and export records across a number of key sectors, including soybeans, corn, cotton, sugar cane, and robusta (conilon) coffee. And the consequences of this abundance will last well into 2024 and beyond. 2023’s massive crop helped to trigger a decline in the prices of grains and oilseeds following a run of exceptional prices for farmers. However, the significant decline in fertilizer costs over 2023 will help to offset the impact on farmer margins in 2024.

Since El Niño’s arrival in 2H 2023, forecasts of its persistence during 1H 2024 and the phenomenon’s possible impacts on the soybean and corn harvests have emerged as the biggest issue on the radar for early 2024. Given the country’s share of global trade, the possible impact of El Niño on rainfall in key regions in Q1 2024 remains a point of attention not just within Brazil but also far beyond.

Our current outlook is for a smaller corn crop and the possibility of a lower soybean crop than in 2023. Consequently, 2024 likely will not see a repeat of the stress on export logistics that arose in 2023 following the surge in availability of bulk commodities for export. But even if output and export flows are lower in 2024, the relief for the logistics supply chain will only be temporary, as 2023’s abundance highlighted the need for a new round of investment in logistics so export infrastructure can keep pace with the long-term trend growth in Brazil’s agricultural output.