Research

Brazil agribusiness quarterly Q3 2025

11 September 2025 18:01 RaboResearch

Andy Duff

Head of RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness - South America; Global Strategist - Sugar

Andrés Padilla

Senior Analyst - Beverages, Dairy, F&A Supply Chains

Marcela Marini

Senior Analyst – Grains & Oilseeds

Guilherme Morya

Senior Analyst - Beverages

Bruno Fonseca

Analyst – Farm Inputs

Wagner Yanaguizawa

Analyst - Animal Protein

Renan Alves

Macro strategist

Maurício Une

Head of South America Macro Strategy

Read the latest developments in Brazil’s key agribusiness sectors, including planting updates, harvest outcomes, production forecasts, price movements, and more.

Highlights include:

FX: We forecast the US dollar at BRL 5.75 by the end of 2025. US trade policy and interest rate differentials support the real in the short term. However, geopolitical and fiscal risks may lead to renewed depreciation.

Tariffs: On July 30, the US government released a list of products exempt from the additional 40% tariff applicable to imports from Brazil as of 6 August. Orange juice and cellulose pulp were granted exemption, but coffee, beef, and sugar were not.

Weather: July and August showed contrasting weather patterns across Brazil, marked by intense heat, isolated frosts, and uneven rainfall. Despite these variations, the dry conditions supported the harvest for grains, cotton, sugarcane, and coffee.

Farm inputs: Despite an increase in fertilizer costs, Brazil is expected to see a rise in fertilizer deliveries, which could represent a new record for the country.

Cane, sugar, and ethanol: NY sugar prices appear to have found a floor at USc 16/pound for now. Points to watch are international oil and gasoline prices plus new crop expectations in India, Thailand, and – looking further ahead – Center-South Brazil.

Coffee: Short-term pressures continue to drive price volatility. After a sharp decline in June, coffee prices saw a strong rebound in August.

Soybeans: Soybean acreage expansion in Brazil is expected to slow, with growth projected at just 1.5% in the 2025/26 season – well below the historical average of 3.5%. Despite limited area growth, current productivity trends point to a robust output of 175m metric tons in the 2025/26 season.

Corn: Despite a record corn crop, intensified competition with US corn has slowed the pace of Brazilian exports since January 2025, which are down 25% YOY.

Cotton: Brazil is set to deliver its third consecutive record lint crop, reinforcing its global leadership in cotton production. According to RaboResearch estimates, output in the 2024/25 season is expected to reach an impressive 4.0m metric tons.

Beef: Exports in July reached an all-time high, with volumes surpassing the 300,000-metric-ton mark for the first time. The live cattle price began an upward trend, which is expected to continue through the end of Q4 2025.

Orange juice: Favorable weather brings optimism about the current harvest. Prices already reflect a more balanced global supply and demand scenario after tariffs to the US were set at 10% instead of the proposed 50%.

Dairy: Supply is still growing, but at a slower pace after a sharp increase in the second quarter. Producers’ margins remain positive, supported by low costs despite lower prices.

Pulp: The increase in supply from China and South America continues to put downward pressure on global pulp prices. However, a gradual recovery is expected from Q4 onward as production downtimes increase.