Global pork quarterly Q2 2025: Global trade disruption creates opportunities for some, new challenges for others

The global pork market is in flux as trade tensions reshape supply chains. Retaliatory tariffs on US pork are expected to redirect exports away from China, benefiting exporters in Europe and Brazil. Despite China’s push for self-sufficiency, it remains the world’s top pork importer, and its trade policies will continue to shape global markets. Feed costs remain volatile and vary by geography, being lower in North America, Southeast Asia, and Europe but rising in South America due to strong demand and currency shifts. Disease also remains a wildcard. Foot-and-mouth disease has reemerged in Europe and South Korea, while porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome and African swine fever continue to challenge producers in parts of North America, the EU, and Asia. Rising disease risks, trade uncertainty, and concerns about consumer spending are expected to weigh on production decisions in 2H 2025, despite favorable production margins in most regions. With planting season underway in the Northern Hemisphere and trade policies evolving, producers are watching closely. The bottom line? Expect a rebalancing of global pork trade, modest supply growth, and ongoing volatility in 2025.