North America containerboard quarterly: Q2 2025

Economists at RaboResearch have downgraded the US economic outlook, projecting a greater than 50% probability of a recession in 2025. In the near term, tariffs are expected to drive up costs and inflation, while prolonged trade uncertainty may weigh on investment and exports, posing risks to corrugated packaging demand.

In the Q2 2025 edition of the containerboard forecast, we expect:

Containerboard demand to grow modestly at a 0.6% CAGR through Q1 2027, reflecting weak GDP expectations partially offset by resilient e-commerce activity.

Production to maintain a projected 1.7% annual growth rate despite the closure of over 6% of total US mill capacity.

Linerboard prices to remain flat through 2026, followed by a projected USD 35/metric ton increase in early 2027 as market conditions improve.