Australia agribusiness October 2025: Keeping an eye on prices

Here are the main highlights for some of Australia's key commodities and economic influences for this month. The full report provides an overview of the developments to watch in the upcoming weeks.

Wheat and barley: Global wheat prices are finding support from Algeria’s recent tender and firm Black Sea values, but rising carryover in Australia and Canada, subdued importer demand, and strong US shipments continue to weigh on market sentiment ahead of the new crop harvest.

Canola: Canadian canola markets remain under pressure amid a larger harvest, weak export outlook, and unresolved trade tensions with China, while European prices find support from reduced sunflower yields.

Beef: After a lift in prices through early spring, cattle prices have plateaued and we believe could ease slightly over the coming month. Conditions and markets remain favourable and prices should be supported, but an easing in producer demand will just see prices ease a little.

Sheepmeat: Ongoing low lamb slaughter volumes and sustained high prices suggest we have not yet seen the bulk of new season lambs enter the market. This could potentially lead to a concentration of lambs in the system and, depending on seasonal conditions, we may see a lift in volumes and softening prices late in the year.

Wool: Wool prices are rallying, with the EMI up an impressive 16.5% month-on-month. The rise appears to be due to a mix of declining production prospects and strong buying enquiry.

Cotton: ICE #2 Cotton futures declined 0.5% month-on-month. This, alongside Australian dollar strength translated into Australian cash price weakness. Signs of an improving Chinese crop, alongside demand headwinds appear to be some of the key drivers behind recent price action.

Farm inputs: Over the past month, urea prices have finally shown some signs of relief, with prices down 12% month-on-month in Australian dollar terms. That said, if India seek another tender soon, prices have potential to move back the other way.

Dairy: All eyes are fixed on the strength of global dairy demand, in the face of the approaching Oceania peak milk flows combined with a weak outlook for Chinese import demand into 2026.

Interest rates and FX: Market expectations of RBA rate cuts have been reduced after data released in September showed the economy growing more quickly than expected and inflation running a little hotter than hoped.

Oil and freight: Oil prices rose in September as US inventories fell, US growth accelerated, and President Trump encouraged NATO allies to stop buying Russian energy.