Update
Australia agribusiness monthly July 2026: STRAIT back to normal?
Here are the main highlights for some of Australia’s key commodities and economic influences this month. The full report covers the developments to watch in the upcoming weeks.
Climate: El Niño has been officially declared, increasing the risk of below-average spring rainfall. Australia's rainfall outlook remains challenging, and June’s above-average temperatures are already influencing crop development.
Beef: Cattle prices have recovered from the slump in April and May, pushing to new year highs with finished cattle (heavy steers and cows) exceeding ten-year highs. The strong export market continues, although there remains some uncertainty around the impact of Chinese quotas that are starting to come into play.
Wool: Wool prices finished the year strong, up 61% compared to last year. The ongoing limited supplies continue to support the market with wool tested volumes down 9% for the year.
Sugar: Near-term sugar prices remain pressured by surplus supply, but rising El Niño risks point to tighter markets ahead, supporting future prices and offering cautious upside for Australian growers.
Consumer foods: Consumer confidence among Australian households has improved in recent weeks but remains weak overall. Meanwhile, food inflation picked up in May (3.35%), driven by higher prices in the meat and dairy categories.
Interest rate and FX: As foreshadowed last month, the RBA left the cash rate unchanged in June and market expectations of further rate hikes have diminished further. Longer-term interest rates have also fallen, and the Australian dollar has weakened substantially against the USD in response.
Oil and freight: Oil prices fell more than 20% in June following the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding between Iran and the US that saw tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz rise significantly. Consequently, RaboResearch has reduced its forecasts for oil prices.