Australia agribusiness monthly November 2026: Spring in their step

Wheat and barley: Grain prices are under pressure from better US corn yields as well as consistent but below-normal Black Sea grain exports and recurring headlines of potential grain export agreements between Ukraine and Russia. RaboResearch forecasts Australia’s G&O crop to be 5% below the strong volumes a year ago.

Canola: Canola markets remain supported by tight global vegetable oil supplies, particularly in palm oil, as well as Black Sea canola and sunflower oil export disruptions. RaboResearch forecasts Australia’s canola crop at 8.1m tonnes, above last year’s output, while a further acreage expansion next season seems likely.

Beef: Seasonal conditions continue to drive the cattle market, with favourable weather through October leading to price increases. If this continues, and with the resetting of the China quota on 1 January, prices could remain firm through to the end of the year.

Sheepmeat: Lamb prices rose as competition for new-season lambs intensifies, but slaughter numbers are starting to plateau. Seasonal conditions and prices are encouraging producers to hold lambs to heavier weights and delay slaughter, which may cause prices to level out.

Wool: October saw further declines in Australian wool prices, with broader merino and crossbred types under the most pressure as improved seasonal conditions increased supply. Finer wool proved more resilient amid tighter availability, while subdued downstream demand continues to limit broader market support.

Cotton: Cotton prices ended October almost unchanged as Brazil’s weaker currency offset price support resulting from improved mill buying. Higher global production and stocks are weighing on the outlook, while Australian exports remain robust amid stronger Indian buying and softer Chinese demand.

Farm inputs: Urea prices strengthened through October amid renewed Indian demand and Middle Eastern supply uncertainty, while phosphate markets remained elevated but stable. Potash has the softest outlook, with growing global supply and weak demand expected to push prices lower.

Sugar: Sugar prices have fallen sharply, offsetting most of the price gains seen earlier in October, as Brazil’s weaker currency could encourage sugar exports, while Brazilian weather disruption and tight Indian supplies continue to offer price support.

Dairy: Oceania commodity values strengthened in October, led by a 6% rise in skim milk powder (SMP) and modest cheese gains, while butter fell 4% to a three-year low. Butter and cheese remained below five-year averages. Oceania milk production is entering the spring peak on a strong footing, with Australian output up 2.2% and New Zealand milk solids up 1.9% YOY through September.

Consumer foods: Australia’s food inflation problem hasn’t disappeared, but it has changed character, with price pressures increasingly diverging across categories as food inflation edged up to 3.2% YOY in September. Australian consumer confidence remains deeply subdued.

Interest rates and FX: The RBA followed up its September rate hike with a further lift in the cash rate target to 4.85% in early November. The Australian dollar fell 1.6% against the US dollar over the course of September as the gap between Australian and US long-term borrowing costs narrowed.

Oil and freight: In October, oil prices rose to the highest levels since April and could be poised to rise further as the US and its allies contemplate renewed strikes against Iran.