Update

New Zealand agribusiness August 2025: Hot prices, warm outlook for spring 2025

6 August 2025 16:20 RaboResearch
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Here are the main highlights for some of New Zealand’s key commodities this month. The full report covers the developments to watch in the upcoming weeks.

Intro

Here are the main highlights for some of New Zealand's key commodities and economic influences for this month. The full report provides an overview of the developments to watch in the upcoming weeks.

    Dairy: New season milk production has launched with a bang and could set a new record for milk flows out of this part of the world, posing a test for Oceania commodity prices. Beef: Bull beef prices held firm in July, supported by continued strong US demand. Tight domestic supply, reduced slaughter rates, and rising calf values continue to underpin strength in New Zealand's beef sector. Sheepmeat: As 2025 spring lambing begins, tight old-season supply and strong EU demand are supporting record seasonal lamb prices. Export volumes remain low, but market diversification continues to underpin value resilience. Farm inputs: Fertiliser prices continued to track higher in July, with urea leading the way (+12% MOM). Despite easing tensions in the Middle East global supply and demand remains tight, particularly in the urea and phosphate markets. Interest rates and FX: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged in July but is likely to deliver the final cut of the cycle in August, bringing the rate down to 3.00%. Meanwhile, the US has increased tariffs on New Zealand exports from 10% to 15%. Oil and freight: Oil prices lifted for a third consecutive month in July, as US president Donald Trump threatened secondary sanctions against buyers of Russian exports (including oil) should Russian president Vladimir Putin fail to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine. Trump has given Putin less than two weeks to agree to terms.

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New Zealand agribusiness monthly August 2025

Previous editions

New Zealand agribusiness monthly July 2025
New Zealand agribusiness monthly June 2025
New Zealand agribusiness monthly May 2025
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The information and opinions contained in this document are indicative and for discussion purposes only. No rights may be derived from any transactions described and/or commercial ideas contained in this document. This document is for information purposes only and is not, and should not be construed as, an offer, invitation or recommendation. Read more