Update
New Zealand agribusiness May 2025: Strong end to autumn
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Here are the main highlights for some of New Zealand’s key commodities this month. The full report provides an overview of the developments to watch in the upcoming weeks.
Dairy: The North Island heat has resulted in the lowest milk production growth rate this season so far, excluding June 2024.
Beef: In March 2025, New Zealand beef exports hit a record value of NZD 534m, despite lower slaughter numbers. Strong demand and a weak New Zealand dollar contributed. Average export values hold strong, and demand from Asian markets may increase in the coming months due to US-China relations.
Sheepmeat: Lamb prices remain strong despite a slight dip in average export value in March. Lamb export volumes for March hit a six-year high at 36,000 tonnes, with EU export volumes up 34% YOY over February and March.
Farm inputs: Urea, phosphate, and potash prices rose across the board on a month-on-month basis. For urea, India's recent tender pushed prices higher. Meanwhile, for phosphate prices, higher production costs and rising global demand continue to keep prices trading above historical averages
Interest rates and FX: RaboResearch expects another 0.25 percentage point cut from the RBNZ in May. However, future policy decisions will be largely contingent on the outcomes of trade negotiations between now and 8 July.
Oil and freight: Oil prices hit a four-year low in April due to increased supply from OPEC+ and expectations of lower global growth driven by US tariffs. Freight rates have fallen as attempts by US importers to front-run the imposition of tariffs subside.