New Zealand agribusiness May 2026: Resilient prices weather macro volatility

Here are the main highlights for some of New Zealand's key commodities and economic influences for this month. The full report provides an overview of the developments to watch in the upcoming weeks.

Dairy: Oceania dairy prices diverge with SMP strength supporting NZ milk prices. At the same time, robust production here and in the Northern Hemisphere confirms a well-supplied market.

Beef: Farmgate beef prices remain resilient as delayed supply begins to lift seasonally, with strong underlying demand and market confidence helping offset emerging pressure from higher throughput and evolving global uncertainty.

Sheepmeat: Both lamb and mutton farmgate prices remain well supported by tight supply and diversified export demand. Rising seasonal throughput and global uncertainty may drive some gradual easing as autumn progresses.

Farm inputs: Fertiliser markets remain firm, with global urea prices continuing to rise as the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz constrains global supply. RaboResearch has also noted a sharp month‑on‑month increase of around 20% in phosphate prices, driven by extremely tight sulphur availability.

Interest rates and FX: The OCR was left unchanged at 2.25% in April and is likely to remain so in May. The NZ Dollar rose by 2.8% to 0.59 against the USD last month and is expected to rally towards 0.62 over the next 12 months.

Oil and freight: Oil prices remained volatile in April but there was some good news as the UAE announced it will be leaving OPEC and China indicated that it may soon lift export bans of diesel and jet fuel. The move from the UAE will likely increase oil supply, but not until Hormuz reopens.