Update
New Zealand agribusiness monthly July 2026: Strong supply, markets diverge
Here are the main highlights for some of New Zealand’s key commodities and economic influences this month. The full report provides an overview of the developments to watch in the upcoming weeks.
Dairy: New Zealand production has soared to new levels in 2025/26 – but is adding to the ample supply narrative that has been building in recent weeks, pressuring dairy commodity prices.
Beef: Farmgate beef prices remain firm as supply catches up and export volumes surge, while strong global demand, particularly from the US, underpins returns and supports a positive winter outlook.
Sheep: Sheepmeat farmgate prices continue to strengthen, supported by robust export demand. Supply catches up in total volumes and store/saleyard markets show strength, with confidence building ahead of the new season.
Farm inputs: At the end of the day, farm input markets remain divided, with nitrogen prices easing as supply normalises, while phosphates and agrochemicals continue to face support from elevated feedstock and intermediary costs.
Interest rate and FX: The Q1 national accounts confirmed that the New Zealand economy grew more than expected in the year to March, and recent data points to sustained economic recovery. RaboResearch expects the RBNZ to begin raising the OCR in July.
Oil and freight: Oil prices fell more than 20% in June following the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding between Iran and the US that saw tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz rise significantly. Consequently, RaboResearch has reduced its forecasts for oil prices.