Update
New Zealand agribusiness monthly June 2026: Firm feet for pricing, even with uncertainty
Here are the main highlights for some of New Zealand’s key commodities and economic influences this month. The full report provides an overview of the developments to watch in the upcoming weeks.
Dairy: Oceania dairy markets saw mixed price movements in May, with powder strength and weaker butter, supported by firm demand, strong New Zealand production, and a globally well‑supplied but moderating outlook.
Beef: Beef prices are stabilising at strong levels, supported by tight local supply and firm global demand, with record export values and constrained (global) production expected to underpin a generally positive winter outlook.
Sheep: Tighter Australian supply and firm global demand from a good market mix underpin a positive winter outlook for New Zealand lamb markets. Mutton also remains well supported.
Interest rates and FX: The RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 2.25% in May, but it was a 3-3 split decision with Governor Breman’s casting vote as the deciding factor. The RBNZ sent strong signals that they expect to lift the OCR sooner rather than later, and we are now forecasting a 0.25ppt rate hike at the next meeting in July.
Oil and freight: Oil prices fell on peace hopes in late May, but the Strait of Hormuz remains mostly closed and a deal is proving elusive. RaboResearch has changed its baseline forecast for the strait to remain closed until September and raised Q3 and Q4 oil price forecasts to USD 120/bbl and USD 100/bbl, respectively.