New Zealand agribusiness September 2025: Surging prices for spring 2025

Here are the main highlights for some of New Zealand's key commodities and economic influences for this month. The full report provides an overview of the developments to watch in the upcoming weeks.

Dairy: Milk production growth is clear in most exporting regions across the globe – just as New Zealand’s milk production is set to accelerate.

Beef: High prices continue to hold in beef markets. Record saleyard prices, as well as export prices, highlight robust market conditions heading into the 2025/26 season.

Sheepmeat: Lamb prices hit record highs in August, driven by tight supply and strong global demand. Export values surged despite lower volumes, with EU markets continuing to drive value.

Farm inputs: Urea prices rose in early August, driven by strong Indian demand. However, news that China will increase its export allocations for both urea and phosphates helped ease markets later in the month.

Interest rates and FX: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut the OCR by 25bps to 3.00% in August and signalled more cuts to come. RaboResearch expects the OCR to be cut once more, likely in November.

Oil and freight: Oil prices fell in August as markets retraced some of the sharp gains seen in late July after US President Donald Trump threatened to impose secondary sanctions on buyers of Russian crude.