New Zealand agribusiness October 2025: Into the swing of spring

Here are the main highlights for some of New Zealand's key commodities and economic influences for this month. The full report provides an overview of the developments to watch in the upcoming weeks.

Dairy: All eyes are fixed on the strength of global dairy demand in the face of the approaching Oceania peak milk flows combined with a weak outlook for Chinese import demand into 2026.

Beef: Beef prices held firm in September, supported by tight supply. China stepped up in average export value, the highest since May 2023, while patchy pasture growth tempered store cattle demand.

Sheepmeat: Lamb prices continued to tick upward in September, with export demand strong. China and the US lifted volumes, while record lamb export values and steady mutton returns reflected robust global sheepmeat appetite.

Farm inputs: Over the past month, urea prices have finally shown some signs of relief, with prices down 10% month-on-month in New Zealand dollar terms. That said, if India seek another tender soon, prices have potential to move back the other way.

Interest rates and FX: Poor growth figures reported in the Q2 national accounts have opened the door to deeper cuts to the OCR. RaboResearch expects a 0.5ppt cut in October, with a smaller follow up cut in November.

Oil and freight: Oil prices rose in September as US inventories fell, US growth accelerated, and President Trump encouraged NATO allies to stop buying Russian energy.