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Global aquaculture update 1H 2025: Navigating growth amid uncertainties
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The first half of 2025 brings the global aquaculture industry a cautiously optimistic outlook. The salmon sector will continue recovering, as fewer biological challenges are expected. With oversupply seemingly in the past, shrimp farmers look forward to better margins. And fish meal supply gets a boost from Peru.
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Inflation is easing in Western economies, which could gradually boost demand. However, the recent US presidential win by Trump raises concerns about potential trade war-induced inflation. Meanwhile, China's ongoing economic uncertainty and need for fiscal support may hinder demand recovery in the first half of 2025.
The global salmon industry is showing signs of a mild recovery, with growth expected to reach 1% to 2% in the first half of 2025. Norway is better prepared to tackle biological issues, and the El Niño-induced issues experienced in Chile in 2024 are not expected to recur. However, the salmon market remains constrained, with prices anticipated to stay elevated throughout the first half of 2025.
The global shrimp industry is rebalancing as producers slow production growth to reduce the demand-supply gap, leading to a gradual recovery in prices. Ecuador's supply growth slowdown hinges on demand recovery from China, while Asia's shrimp production is expected to recover due to improving demand in the US and EU.
The return to neutral and La Niña conditions is expected to boost fish meal supply in the first half of 2025. Peru's increased anchovy quota could significantly enhance global fish meal and fish oil supplies. However, high Chinese inventories and a soymeal surplus are likely to exert mild downward pressure on fish meal prices and could lead to a price correction in the first half of 2025.
Persistent macroeconomic challenges in China are poised to soften import demand in the first half of 2025. Conversely, demand in Europe and the US is on an upward trajectory, albeit from a subdued baseline, with a gradual recovery anticipated throughout the period. Additionally, good demand for fish meal is forecast, as industry players aim to restock their diminishing inventories following a phase of constrained supply.
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The information and opinions contained in this document are indicative and for discussion purposes only. No rights may be derived from any transactions described and/or commercial ideas contained in this document. This document is for information purposes only and is not, and should not be construed as, an offer, invitation or recommendation. Read more