Win, lose, or draw: What US tariffs could mean for Australian and New Zealand exports

The current US baseline tariffs of 10% should be manageable for most countries, including Australia and New Zealand. Canada and Mexico are well-positioned, as most food and agricultural shipments to the US are tariff-free due to the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).

Beef: Due to USMCA, Canada and Mexico gained an advantage when other suppliers were hit with 10% tariffs, but their export volumes to the US may not see significant gains. This should still be the case once US reciprocal tariffs take effect, which is expected on 9 July.

Sheepmeat: Australia and New Zealand supply over 98% of US imports. Despite the 10% US import tariffs, these volumes are likely to continue.

Wine: Over 95% of US wine imports currently face 10% baseline tariffs. From 9 July, higher reciprocal tariffs are expected to affect over 80% of imports, mainly from the EU, while imports from New Zealand, Australia, Brazil, and Chile will remain at 10%, giving them a relative advantage.

Canola: USMCA allows Canadian canola oil and meal to flow tariff-free into the US, preventing increased competition with Australian canola in the EU and Asia.

Almonds: High Chinese tariffs have halted imports of almonds from the US, its major supplier. Australia is well-positioned to gain market share in China, which is already its largest destination.

Overall, Australian and New Zealand agricultural trade should be able to maintain current trade volumes, and some commodities may even find opportunities to gain share in the US or China. But US trade policy bears watching, as it could change in the near future.