Australian 2025/26 winter crop outlook: Cropping area, margins, and grain prices

Tariff threats and soil moisture imbalances at the start of the season set the tone for Australia's 2025/26 winter crop.

Australian cropping area for the 2025/26 season is projected to increase to 24.8m hectares, driven by positive soil moisture levels in northern New South Wales and Queensland and a range-bound gross margin outlook for most crops. The 2.1% YOY rise in national cropping area is expected to benefit most crops, except for wheat.

Despite US tariff-driven efforts to reorder global trade, Australia's key grain & oilseed exports seem largely unscathed for now and may gain global market share. Asian countries rely on Australia to source grains and pulses, and the EU imports canola to balance its supply of oilseeds.

With increased wheat supply from the EU and another robust wheat crop in the Black Sea region likely, there are not many reasons to be bullish. Speculators seem to agree, holding record net short positions on CBOT wheat. For canola, the key questions are the extent of the EU’s import demand and how much Canada can supply.