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The trade deals mark a political victory for Trump, who’s successfully demonstrated US hegemony translates into substantial trade leverage. Whether the tariffs make for good economic policy for the US will crucially depend on who ends up paying for these tariffs. We are now looking for 100bps of easing in 2026 as Trump’s influence over the FOMC steadily expands. That would be another Trump victory if it comes to pass.
Marketing communication / Non-Independent Research. This publication is issued by Coöperatieve Rabobank U.A., registered in Amsterdam, and/or any one or more of its affiliates and related bodies corporate (jointly and individually: “Rabobank”). Coöperatieve Rabobank U.A. is authorised and regulated by De Nederlandsche Bank and the Netherlands Authority for the Financial Markets. Read more
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