US foodservice update: Menu deals and economic trends could improve traffic (Q2 2025)

Credit and debit card data provided by Consumer Edge (formerly Earnest Analytics) reveals that foodservice activity in the second quarter of 2025 improved from the lows seen earlier in the year. However, traffic and spending remain subdued across most restaurant categories, with growth concentrated in QSR concepts focused on chicken, snacks, and beverages.

Consumers continued to spend cautiously, in part due to weakened savings. High cumulative menu inflation - especially compared to grocery inflation - and the ongoing economic uncertainty driven by shifting trade policies also played a role in lowering consumer confidence.

On a more positive note, although savings are lower, the consumer does not appear to be under major financial distress. Employment, wage growth, and retail spending (up 6% year over year in July) have all served as supporting economic indicators. This suggests that the second half of the year could mark a turning point for foodservice demand, particularly a less dramatic contraction in traffic. As trade uncertainties ease and industry players refine their offerings to be more affordable and differentiated, consumers may begin to re-engage with foodservice more actively.