Hooked on scarcity: Navigating aquafeed nutrition amid looming marine ingredient shortages

The aquaculture industry is facing growing demand for fishmeal and fish oil, driven by the expansion of high-value species and the adoption of more intensive farming practices. However, this rising demand is colliding with stagnant marine ingredient availability and increasing vulnerability to supply shocks --particularly those linked to climate change and recurring El Niño events.

In recent years, supply disruptions have had a more pronounced impact on fishmeal and fish oil prices, as the narrowing supply-demand gap has made demand more inelastic. Looking ahead, fishmeal shortages are projected to emerge as early as 2028, while fish oil scarcity is expected to intensify throughout the decade. As shortages deepen, demand inelasticity is likely to increase further, leading to greater price volatility and establishing higher price benchmarks during future supply shocks.

To support sustainable growth, the aquaculture sector must adopt proactive strategies to secure access to essential feed ingredients. Novel feed sources will play a critical role --not merely as alternatives, but as essential components of future feed formulations. Embracing these innovations will be key to building resilience and ensuring long-term viability in a resource-constrained environment.