Research
Brazilian pulp positioned for growth in the US market
Brazil is well positioned to expand its presence in the US pulp market, driven by cost-efficient production, growing capacity, and favorable trade dynamics. As global pulp prices diverge and softwood supply contracts, Brazilian hardwood pulp offers a compelling alternative for US buyers seeking affordability and flexibility. With continued investment, logistical strength, and resilience to currency and tariff volatility, Brazil is not only reinforcing its role as a global pulp powerhouse but also reshaping the competitive landscape of fiber sourcing in North America.
The US remains structurally reliant on pulp imports, with market pulp accounting for 11% of total demand in 2024. Brazil dominates US hardwood pulp supply with an 82% share, supported by low costs, fast-growing eucalyptus, and large-scale integrated mills. Looking ahead, Brazil's hardwood pulp production is expected to keep growing, driven by the construction and planning of new mills through 2029.
In this report, we explore the key drivers that could lead to further growth of Brazilian pulp exports to the US:
Cost and technology: The price gap between US softwood and hardwood pulp has widened to USD 250 to USD 300/metric ton. Refining advances, such as enzymatic processes and low-intensity mechanical refining, enable hardwood substitution in tissue and packaging without compromising performance.
Trade and currency: EU pulp faces a 15% tariff from the US, while Brazilian pulp remains subject to a 10% base tariff and benefits from a favorable foreign exchange market and competitive freight costs, ensuring a strong landed cost advantage.
Logistics: Supply chain efficiency is enhanced by expanded US East Coast port capacity and proximity to southeastern mills, which are major virgin fiber consumers. The absence of any major ocean bottlenecks further supports growth.
Supply expansion: Upcoming expansion projects will help ensure that Brazilian pulp remains both competitive and readily available to meet US demand - particularly as China's import volumes decline due to rising domestic production and a slowing economy.