Field crop margin outlook 2026: Global crop margins to remain under pressure

The combination of rising operating costs and falling prices is expected to result in another season of compressed margins for major producers. This reinforces our view that margin pressures are likely to persist at least through mid-2027.

Like the 2024 edition, this year's Field crop margin outlook highlights the continuing story of margin pressure for farmers – but now within a more complex global environment. Last year, declining commodity prices largely drove margin pressure. This year, we can add other factors to that, including higher costs and heightened uncertainty resulting from intensified geopolitical tensions and the imposition of US tariffs.

Looking ahead to the 2026 season, our analysis points to another challenging year across major agricultural regions. We largely attribute this to persistent input cost pressures, including rising fertilizer prices and elevated interest rates. While some relief is expected in crop protection costs, overall operating expenses are trending upward, posing substantial challenges for producers of soybeans, corn, and other crops.

On the commodities front, production trends suggest that, despite tighter margins, farmers remain committed to investing in their fields to sustain or expand output. Projections indicate another record crop for corn and soybeans, with top-producing regions driving this growth. These record production levels – despite declining stock levels – are exerting downward pressure on commodity prices.