Robusta rising: Climate resilience meets market expansion in Brazil

Demand for robusta coffee is rising, especially in emerging markets. The growing trend of out-of-home consumption favors coffee-based beverages with robusta's intense flavor profiles, and the exemption of instant coffee from the EU's Regulation on Deforestation-free Products (EUDR) is driving increased demand for robusta-based formats, potentially supporting production growth in the coming years.

Brazil has full potential to establish itself as the leading global player in the robusta coffee market. Its well-structured supply chain and robust traceability systems facilitate compliance with the EUDR. And according to the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (EMBRAPA), the country has around 28m hectares of degraded pasture with strong agricultural potential, enabling deforestation-free expansion of robusta coffee.

But implementation costs for robusta coffee are high. And with temperatures rising and annual rainfall declining in the key coffee-producing regions, climate change has become the main productivity constraint for Brazilian coffee producers. Yet robusta coffee shows greater resilience to heat, drought, and disease than arabica, and irrigation has become a strategic solution to ensure the productivity and quality of coffee crops in Brazil.

In a global market increasingly affected by climate volatility, robusta's inherent traits, combined with Brazil's capacity for large-scale cultivation, position the country to offer a more stable and reliable supply. But to do so, it must overcome the challenges presented by unstable climate conditions, price volatility, rising costs, and geopolitical uncertainties.