Monthly Outlook: Weapons

Russian aerial incursions into Europe continue. Hopes for a peace deal in Ukraine appear to have gone. Yet holding land costs vastly more in men and materiel than any defence. Europe is reportedly admitting it can’t do it alone: but what if it has to? The economic impact would be far larger than markets are pricing. And as economic statecraft replaces policy, what constitutes a ‘weapon’ also shifts. Every week brings more weaponisation of supply chains or deeper state involvement in them.