Australian 2025/26 winter crop forecast: Production and grain prices

Australia's above-average production is driving a surge in global grain supply, putting downward pressure on prices

Australian grain and oilseed production for the 2025/26 season is forecast to rise by 5.2m tonnes year-on-year, reaching 64.2m tonnes. This growth is underpinned by above-average rainfall across key producing states – notably Western Australia, which may see its second-largest crop on record, and northern New South Wales. Positive soil moisture levels in Queensland and northern New South Wales have further supported growth. The 8.8% increase in tonnage is largely driven by improved wheat and canola yields, alongside a significant rise in barley cropping area.

Australian grain exports face intense competition, as global production remains high, especially for wheat and barley. Large harvests in Russia, the EU, and the US have weighed on global markets, while carryover stocks continue to build in major exporting nations, such as Australia and Canada. Locally, the combination of a sizable new crop and old crop carryover is expected to limit upside potential for Australian wheat prices.

With a potential record-high barley crop this season, the pace of exports will be crucial in shaping market dynamics. Last year's volatility served as a clear reminder of how quickly prices can shift. Domestic demand is anticipated to remain firm, supported by the cattle and sheep sectors, which tend to buffer the impact of abundant US corn supply on global feed grain markets.

Canola exports to the EU may soften compared to last season due to a recovery in European production. However, demand for stock replenishment and a year-on-year decline in sunflower supply are expected to support non-GM canola prices. Chinese demand for Australian canola may resurge in 2026, improving local prospects for genetically modified canola production.

Farm input costs continue to pressure farm budgets, and cropping area decisions may shift again next season. With global pulse supply expanding and South Asia enjoying a favourable monsoon, pulse prices are easing, and canola may rise as a preferred crop among Australian growers. Looking ahead, we expect long-term weather patterns and global trade developments to be key points to watch over the summer. As of late September, forecasts suggest a chance of above-average rainfall during late spring and early summer for the east coast.