The impact of the Middle-East conflict on the European economy

The rapid escalation in the Middle East has driven a sharp but contained rise in energy and logistics risks, feeding into European inflation and supply‑chain concerns. Brent has surged and European gas prices have nearly doubled, with future moves tied to the conflict. Europe remains highly exposed because a large share of global oil and LNG flows depends on the Strait of Hormuz. Using model‑based baseline and risk scenarios, we assess both temporary shocks and prolonged disruptions. A brief disruption causes only a temporary inflation bump, but prolonged outages could keep prices high and delay Europe’s recovery into 2028.