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The war in Iran creates a new stagflationary shock, and the duration of the conflict dictates the severity. The policy outlook is now inextricably tied to the situation in the Middle East, making for a very bifurcated outlook. The current energy shock probably does not warrant rate hikes, but the ECB will signal readiness to act if the situation deteriorates. Risks are now firmly skewed to earlier hikes than we have pencilled in.
Marketing communication / Non-Independent Research. This publication is issued by Coöperatieve Rabobank U.A., registered in Amsterdam, and/or any one or more of its affiliates and related bodies corporate (jointly and individually: “Rabobank”). Coöperatieve Rabobank U.A. is authorised and regulated by De Nederlandsche Bank and the Netherlands Authority for the Financial Markets. Read more
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