External “hawk”, Brazil “dove”

 Copom cut the Selic rate by 25 bps to 14.25%, in line with expectations, maintaining its calibration as it assessed that the interest rate path would bring inflation below target in 1Q28, one quarter beyond the current relevant horizon. With no forward guidance, it conditioned next steps on incoming data. We maintain the expectation of another 25 bps cut in July, with an upward bias to Selic projections at 13.25% in 2026 and 11.25% in 2027.  IBC-Br indicates acceleration in economic activity on the margin in April, but the outlook remains weak for the rest of the year. In April, the IBC-Br—a monthly proxy calculated by the Central Bank for Brazil’s GDP (which is only released quarterly by the IBGE)—showed an increase of 0.51% m/m (market