Update

1 July 2026 16:24 RaboResearch

 Central Bank signaled greater risks to the convergence of inflation toward the target, with an asymmetrically upside-skewed risk balance influenced by shocks such as climate-related factors and stimulus to economic activity. In this context, the Central Bank assessed different interest rate paths and opted for a strategy aimed at avoiding abrupt moves that could bring inflation below target, as currently priced by the DI curve. The Committee also considered the unprecedented possibility of pausing and later resuming the policy calibration cycle. Following the release of the Minutes and the RPM, we revised our baseline Selic rate forecast for end-2026 from 13.50% to 14.00%. As a result, we now expect GDP growth of 2.4% in 2027 (down from 2

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Marketing communication / Non-Independent Research. This publication is issued by Coöperatieve Rabobank U.A., registered in Amsterdam, and/or any one or more of its affiliates and related bodies corporate (jointly and individually: “Rabobank”). Coöperatieve Rabobank U.A. is authorised and regulated by De Nederlandsche Bank and the Netherlands Authority for the Financial Markets. Read more