Economic update the Netherlands: Impact EU-US trade deal on Dutch economy

If you have just returned from your holiday or if you are still looking forward to it, you are not alone. According to Statistics Netherlands (CBS), about 70% of the Dutch take time off during the summer, which officially runs between May until September. European and American diplomats have not yet had their summer break. They have been working hard to reach a trade deal just before the August 1 deadline. Although not all details are known yet, we have made an estimate of the impact on the Dutch economy and key sectors. Statistics Netherlands has also published the new Q2 figures on the state of the Dutch economy, leading us to update our forecast.

GDP growth in Q2 2025

According to the first estimate of Statistics Netherlands, the Dutch GDP increased by 0.1% in Q2. This is somewhat lower than expected. By contrast, figures for Q1 were revised upward. Taking these new data into account, we have adjusted our growth forecast upwards. To 1.7% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026.

Consumption contracted in Q2, after it had been significantly revised upward for Q1. On balance, we expect that consumer spending, together with government expenditures, will remain an important driver of economic growth this year and next. The high level of employment – the unemployment rate remained at 3.8% in June – contributes to stable consumer spending. Inflation was 2,5% in July. We have adjusted our inflation forecast to 3,0% in 2025 and 2,4% in 2026; see also our Inflation Monitor ^NL.

Most notably, imports in Q2 rose by a strong 2.6% QOQ, without a corresponding rise in consumption or stocks. Although Statistic Netherlands has not yet published any separate Q2 figures for these categories, they do report that business and the government invested more in vehicles such as ships and airplanes.

Overall impact of the EU-US deal on the Dutch economy

The newly negotiated US import tariff is 15%, without retaliation from the EU. In addition, the EU has committed to buying goods from the US, including military equipment and energy, and promised to invest about USD 600 billion in the US.

In our June forecast, we had already incorporated an import tariff of 20% on most European goods in our baseline scenario, and we presented several alternative scenarios ^NL, including a more optimistic scenario with a tariff of 10%. These scenarios also took into account higher sector-specific tariffs that were already in place, such as the 50% tariff on steel and aluminium, but did not yet incorporate additional agreements between the US and the EU.

On a macroeconomic level, the difference between a 20% tariff and a 10% tariff amounts to only 0.1 percentage point. This means that the impact of the agreed 15% does not make a material difference to our macroeconomic growth forecasts.

As the EU will not retaliate against the new US import tariffs, EU import tariffs will not exert inflationary pressure.

Impact of the EU-US deal on key business sectors

Although the macroeconomic effects of the deal may be small, the impact on individual sectors could be more significant. With around 60% of its production being destined for export, the manufacturing sector is most vulnerable to disturbances in international trade.

So far, manufacturing production remains stable, increasing with only0.5% MOM in May (see figure 1). In our June forecast ^NL, we expected the sector’s value added to increase by 1.6% this year in the baseline case with tariffs of 20%, and by 1.8% in our optimistic scenario with a 10% tariff (see figure 2). In 2026, we expected 0.1% or 0.4% growth, if tariffs were set at 20% or 10%, respectively. Our next official sector forecast, which also includes Q2 realizations, will be published in September.

An important question for the Dutch manufacturing sector is whether there will be quotas for steel and aluminium, which currently face an import tariff of 50%. These sector-specific higher tariffs came into effect in March at 25% and were later raised to 50% in June. However, their impact on production figures, such as those for basic metals and the metal products manufacturers, is not yet apparent (see figure 1). A major Dutch aluminium producer reports ^NL that, despite the higher tariffs, they have not yet seen a drop in American demand, as they produce a specific product that is not currently being produced in the US. Uncertainty about the duration of the higher tariffs has so far led to reluctance to start producing in the US itself.

Other sectors that are directly impacted by higher US tariffs are the wholesale trade, due to its key position in international supply chains, and the transport sector (see figure 2). Lower exports means less products to be transported, although an important mitigating factor is that most international trade happens through large non-Dutch shipping companies. In our baseline, we expected the transport sector to increase its value added by 1.7% this year and 0.3% next year, but these figures might be slightly adjusted upward as the current deal is more favorable.