Research

Brazil agribusiness quarterly Q1 2026

8 April 2026 12:38 RaboResearch

Andy Duff

Head of RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness - South America; Global Strategist - Sugar

Andrés Padilla

Senior Analyst - Beverages, Dairy, F&A Supply Chains

Bruno Fonseca

Analyst – Farm Inputs

Marcela Marini

Senior Analyst – Grains & Oilseeds

Wagner Yanaguizawa

Analyst - Animal Protein

Maurício Une

Head of South America Macro Strategy

Renan Alves

Macro strategist

Read the latest on Brazil’s key agribusiness sectors, including soy, cotton, corn, beef, coffee, orange juice, and pulp, alongside insights into the impact of US tariffs.

Highlights include:

FX: We expect the exchange rate to reach BRL 5.55/USD by the end of 2026, pressured by geopolitical tensions abroad plus fiscal and electoral uncertainty at home. Despite the onset of a cutting cycle, high local interest rates will generate some support.

Conflict in the Middle East: The Middle East is the destination for 7% of Brazil´s agricultural exports, led by poultry meat, beef, sugar, corn, and soybeans. The conflict in the region has already led to rising fuel and fertilizer prices.

Weather: Above-average rainfall negatively impacted the soybean harvest and the planting of the second corn crop. For the second half of the year, conditions are expected to favor the development of an El Niño.

Farm Inputs: The conflict in the Middle East is driving up prices for nitrogen fertilizers. Phosphorus is already beginning to show signs of impact from the conflict.

Cane, sugar, and ethanol: The conflict in the Middle East has sparked a rally in NY sugar prices, creating a welcome hedging opportunity for millers. To date, local gasoline prices have risen only modestly in comparison with international price movements.

Soybeans: Soybean prices on the CBOT are being buoyed by geopolitics, but weakening global fundamentals, record Brazilian supply, and rising logistics costs suggest the rally is increasingly vulnerable.