Research
US vegetable trade amid tariff and trade tensions
We review the trends in US vegetable trade and assess some of the impacts that 25% US tariffs could have on retail prices and the fresh vegetable market.
US horticultural trade exemplifies the economic principle of specialization and trade. Leveraging its comparative advantages, the US enjoys a trade surplus in tree nuts such as almonds, pistachios, and walnuts. On the other hand, it depends on imports for fresh fruits, vegetables, and other products where its trading partners benefit from favorable climate and lower labor costs.
In this report, we review the trends in US vegetable trade and assess some of the potential impacts of US tariffs on the fresh vegetable market. Although these tariffs are anticipated to increase prices in the US and decrease trade, factors such as a stronger US dollar, taxable value share, import dependence, seasonality, and substitutability may help mitigate these effects.
As the US market consumes large quantities of fresh vegetables and increasingly relies on imports, the potential impact of 25% tariffs on retail prices would vary significantly across different vegetable categories and based on domestic seasonal availability. Vine vegetables could see annual retail price increases of 5% to 19%. For fresh vegetables like leafy greens, which have stronger domestic production and lower trade dependence, price hikes would range from 0% to 7% throughout the year. Exporters to the US would likely receive lower prices if tariffs were imposed.
US fresh potato exports have diversified over the past decade, with Mexico becoming the primary destination in 2024 after lifting sanitary restrictions in 2022. This led to a significant increase in exports. However, a trade war – with potential retaliatory tariffs – could disrupt this trend. The export share of US potato production grew from 4% in 2004 to 13% in 2023.