Opinion

The Dutch Agri-food Sector’s Strength in 2040

16 March 2026 7:00

In 2040, the Dutch agri-food sector will still be one of the world’s most productive and innovative agri-food sectors. It will also make an important contribution to broad prosperity and entrepreneurs will be working in harmony with nature. Entrepreneurs will receive public and private rewards for their sustainable, resilient, and innovative business models.

Marijn Dekkers in gesprek met melkveehouder

In brief

    The sector will continue to be a global productivity, innovation, and sustainability leader in 2040. Farmers will work in harmony with nature and within ecological limits. Innovations will be introduced quickly due to strong chain cooperation. The sector will contribute to food security, employment, and broad prosperity. True Value will ensure that governments and markets offer fair rewards for social value.

In 2040, the Dutch agri-food sector will produce food of high quality in a sustainable way. It will also be a global leader in applying new techniques and technology. This strong position is partly due to a combination of fertile ground, a moderate climate, and a highly-developed ecosystem of agriculturists, chain parties, and knowledge institutions.

Chain Management

In 2040 innovations will quickly find their way to farmers and horticulturists because our agriculturists, policy makers, scientists, and providers of education cooperate well. The Netherlands’ highly developed logistics infrastructure and sound trading position, ensure that finished products, raw materials, technology, and knowledge reach consumers and chain parties across the world. The chain is well-organized, enabling the sector to respond rapidly to changing market demand and develops distinctive health, sustainability, and quality products.

In Harmony with Nature

Farmers and horticulturists will produce food and sustainable products in harmony with nature in 2040. They will operate within ecological limits, make active contributions to achieving climate goals, safeguard attractive landscapes, and engage in nature management and preservation, or even biodiversity growth.

Our farmers will contribute to global food security and to an independent Europe.

Contribution to Broad Prosperity

The sector will deliver more than just healthy and sustainable food. It will also safeguard social cohesion in the countryside and employment, both in urban and rural areas. In addition to chain parties, our agriculturists, government, knowledge institutions, wholesalers, and logistics companies will also contribute to global food security and to an independent Europe that is less dependent on other countries.

True Value Rewarded

Agriculturists’ revenue model will have expanded by 2040. A decline in livestock and a more extensive cultivation plan will be offset by an increase in income from ancillary activities and from public and private rewards for more sustainable production and services in society. The increase in rewards are a consequence of a more intensive cooperation within and between chains and governments, based on a common True Value language at European level: True Value Language. Meanwhile, consumers and the food industry will also have changed, with health, sustainability, and origin becoming more important alongside price and convenience.

Health, sustainability, and origin will have become more important to consumers and the food industry.

Dominant Business Types in 2040

What does this future vision mean for agriculture entrepreneurs? We envision three dominant business types:

    High production/high tech. For entrepreneurs that aim to build on innovation. Smart data, precision technology, and breeding ensure maximum efficiency and lower emissions. Investments pay off through economies of scale and high-end production. These agricultural companies take a leading position in technology and the market. Environmentally-friendly. For entrepreneurs who opt for a robust system that evolves in line with the environment. More extensive, regenerative, and with a focus on soil, water, and biodiversity. Ecosystem services form a structural source of income. Scale growth is possible, but not necessary. This model offers stability and social value. Multifunctional agriculture. For entrepreneurs who see opportunities outside food production. From short chains to recreation, care, and education: Multifunctional agricultural companies build on new income streams and a stronger connection with their local environment. This model can be combined perfectly with both high-tech and nature-friendly farming.

Each agricultural company can choose the route that is the best match for them, but by 2040 all three models will offer perspective, returns, and future viability.