The Consequences of True Value for the Agri-food Sector

It is very likely that the total production volume in primary agriculture and horticulture in the Netherlands will fall in the coming years. Space in the Netherlands is scarce. Environmental space is limited and will reduce even further. The total livestock population in the Netherlands is expected to decrease by 20 to 30 per cent toward 2040 compared with 2023. This decrease has already started. Crop farming production volumes are also likely to decrease. This is due to:

It is important that the Netherlands retains a healthy and resilient agri-food sector. Our agri-food sector is one of the most efficient in the world. On average, the sector enjoys high production per hectare and per animal, as well as relatively low emissions per kilo of finished product. This is offset, however, by relatively high emissions per hectare. Moreover, a reduction sometimes also creates new dilemmas. A smaller dairy herd, for example, means converting grassland into crop farming, which can have implications for water quality and greenhouse gas emissions.

So we must look together for a new balance between size and value/impact, taking landscape and the environment into account. The location will increasingly determine the nature and extent of potential production. This new balance can only be found if there is a sound revenue model for sustainable agriculture and horticulture practices. This requires a different approach across the chains (production, processing, measuring, informing, reporting, valuing, rewarding) in which True Value must be central.

A decrease in production volumes need not automatically lead to a drop in income for individual farmers or growers. There are already many examples in which farmers earn the same or more with lower production volumes (organic, Beter Leven label). This is often because buyers and consumers are willing to pay a higher price for products from a more extensive farming approach. Sometimes returns can increase when production volumes drop slightly. This is due to lower input costs, such as feed, fertilizer, and pesticides, as well as improved technical results. It is important that the chain introduces structural rewards for sustainable production methods.

New revenue models therefore emerge based on added value. This includes carbon storage, biodiversity services, and short chains, as well as new rewards introduced by the chain. Secondary income from multifunctional farming will also become an increasingly important aspect of Dutch farmers’ earning capacity. In 2020, this amounted to €1.2 billion in sales, which could grow to €5 billion by 2030, or 10 to 15 per cent of total sales in the primary sector.

Ultimately, each entrepreneur is responsible for their own revenue model. But because there are so many similarities within sub-sectors, it is important that we think collectively about the revenue models of the future at both sector and sub-sector levels. Now is the time to make joint plans on sustainable earning capacity. The sector can enhance its own future prospects by making such plans together with the corresponding investments.

The protein transition refers to the transition to a more plant-based diet. Protein is one of the macro-nutrients that humans and animals need daily. We get protein through our diet, with most of our protein intake currently being of animal origin, such as meat and dairy. In the Netherlands, the ratio is now around 60 per cent animal and 40 per cent plant-based.

Achieving a healthier and more sustainable diet requires a different balance between animal and plant-based proteins. This is in line with the Netherlands Nutrition Centre, which is aiming for a transition to 40 per cent animal and 60 per cent plant-based protein. We are expecting that this development will continue toward 2040, driven by technological innovations, increasing sustainability requirements, and changing consumer preferences.

New innovations focus on fermentation, hybrid products (combining animal and plant-based proteins), and growing local protein crops. Genetic optimization of micro-organisms and fungi for sustainable protein production is also gaining ground. The increasing demand for plant-based protein offers opportunities for Dutch growers, particularly in the cultivation of pulses. The consumption of these increased by 10 to 15 per cent over the past three years, partly due to an increased range and the growth in convenience products such as ready meals and snacks.

Yet Dutch pulse cultivation remains limited, with imports still dominating, especially for exotic varieties such as chickpeas and edamame. Further scale-up in the Netherlands requires chain cooperation, long-term sales guarantees, and fairer revenue models.

When the new government started in 2026, Rabobank stated that it expected the transition, which is already underway in many parts of the sector, will be continued and further enhanced along the lines as described above. Rabobank remains committed to supporting customers in this development and enabling the associated system change. This will contribute to a future-proof sector that is of lasting value to Dutch society.