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The hurdle for a change in the policy stance is high. President Lagarde will reiterate that high uncertainty warrants full optionality in terms of the policy stance, but we still expect the ECB to stay on hold throughout 2026. Lagarde may try to slow the euro’s momentum a bit with verbal intervention, but we think the currency can appreciate quite a bit further before it would warrant another rate cut.
Marketing communication / Non-Independent Research. This publication is issued by Coöperatieve Rabobank U.A., registered in Amsterdam, and/or any one or more of its affiliates and related bodies corporate (jointly and individually: “Rabobank”). Coöperatieve Rabobank U.A. is authorised and regulated by De Nederlandsche Bank and the Netherlands Authority for the Financial Markets. Read more
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