Climate change redefines suitability and resilience in global arabica coffee production

Climate change is reshaping arabica coffee production, with rising temperatures and shifting rainfall patterns redefining what areas are ideal for cultivation. Today, 8% of current growing areas are classified as unsuitable for arabica production, and projections indicate that share could rise to 20% by 2050. While some regions could face mounting risks, others could see gains. Among the top exporters, Ethiopia may benefit, with suitable zones expanding and highly suitable areas tripling. Brazil may see shifts but will still retain a considerable area under suitable conditions. Meanwhile, Colombia could face declining suitability and Honduras the steepest drop, with suitable zones shrinking to just 12% of current production area.

Some of these changes could threaten flavor consistency and origin branding, pushing importers and roasters to diversify their sourcing and invest in adaptation. At the farm level, producers are increasingly implementing irrigation, good agronomic practices, agroforestry, and improved varieties. But collaboration and transparency across the value chain will be critical to maintain supply, quality, brand integrity, and ultimately industry resilience. The next decade will be decisive. Whether coffee supply chains can remain resilient in the face of climate change will depend on the choices made today by producers, buyers, and investors alike.