Ceasefire gives the ECB some time to assess

The war in the Middle East, and the closure of Hormuz, will now last longer than we had anticipated. Yet, markets are remarkably sanguine. Energy prices have come down, lessening the urgency for the ECB to intervene. A hike next week now seems unlikely, unless new fighting leads to the destruction of key energy infrastructure and/or markets lose their composure. We shift our call for a hike to June, but conviction remains relatively low amidst the fog of war