Update

ECB preview: A high burden of proof

18 July 2025 13:10 RaboResearch

The ECB believes that policy rates are “in a good position.” This does not rule out further rate cuts, but the bar for additional easing is very high. It requires a material deterioration of the outlook. We don’t expect this, and we believe that the ECB has reached the end of the current cutting cycle. That said, uncertainty about trade policies remains a key risk to our forecast.

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Marketing communication / Non-Independent Research. This publication is issued by Coöperatieve Rabobank U.A., registered in Amsterdam, and/or any one or more of its affiliates and related bodies corporate (jointly and individually: “Rabobank”). Coöperatieve Rabobank U.A. is authorised and regulated by De Nederlandsche Bank and the Netherlands Authority for the Financial Markets. Read more